Prediction Mechanics

Learn how predictions work on Illumind - from round creation to reward distribution. Understand the complete prediction lifecycle and game mechanics.

🎮 Prediction Lifecycle

1. Round Initiation

Anyone can start a new prediction round:

🚀 Starting a Round:
1. User clicks "Start New Round"
2. AI captures current market price from Moralis
3. Smart contract creates new round with 5-minute timer
4. Round opens for predictions

Round Structure:

Round #1247
├── Start Time: 10:30:00 UTC
├── End Time: 10:35:00 UTC  
├── Starting Price: $2,487.50
├── Prediction Window: 5 minutes
└── Settlement: Automatic

2. Prediction Phase

Users make their predictions during the active round:

⏰ Prediction Window (5 minutes):
├── Users choose UP ⬆️ or DOWN ⬇️
├── AI provides real-time analysis
├── Multiple predictions allowed
└── Timer counts down to 00:00

3. Settlement Phase

Smart contract automatically resolves the round:

🔄 Auto-Settlement:
1. Timer expires at 00:00
2. Smart contract fetches final price
3. Compares with starting price
4. Determines winners (UP/DOWN)
5. Distributes rewards automatically

🎯 How Predictions Work

Basic Prediction Types:

UP Prediction ⬆️

Starting Price: $2,487.50
Your Prediction: UP
Winning Condition: Final price > $2,487.50

Example:
Final Price: $2,491.20 ✅ YOU WIN!
Final Price: $2,485.80 ❌ You lose

DOWN Prediction ⬇️

Starting Price: $2,487.50
Your Prediction: DOWN
Winning Condition: Final price < $2,487.50

Example:
Final Price: $2,483.10 ✅ YOU WIN!
Final Price: $2,489.90 ❌ You lose

Prediction Requirements:

Requirement	Details
Minimum Hold	30,000 ILUM token
Maximum per Round	3.000,000 ILUM tokens
Time Window	5 Minutes
Price Source	Moralis Oracle (ETH/USDT)

💰 Reward System

How Rewards are Calculated:

def calculate_rewards(total_pool, winners_pool, user_stake, total_winners_stake):
    """
    Reward calculation formula
    """
    # Pool distribution: 90% to winners, 8% to platform, 2% burned
    winners_share = total_pool * 0.90
    
    # User's share based on stake proportion
    user_proportion = user_stake / total_winners_stake
    user_reward = winners_share * user_proportion
    
    return user_reward

Example Reward Calculation:

Round #1247 Results:
├── Total Pool: 1,000 ILUM
├── UP Predictions: 600 ILUM(Winners!)
├── DOWN Predictions: 400 ILUM  
├── Winners' Share: 900 ILUM(90%)
├── Platform Fee: 80 ILUM(8%)
└── Burned: 20 ILUM(2%)

Your Prediction:
├── Direction: UP ⬆️
├── Stake: 50 ILUM
├── Your Share: 50/600 = 8.33%
├── Your Reward: 900 × 8.33% = 75 ILUM
└── Profit: 75 - 50 = +25 ILUM 🎉

Reward Multipliers:

Factor	Multiplier	Description
AI Confidence	1.0x - 1.5x	Higher confidence = higher rewards
Market Difficulty	1.0x - 2.0x	Volatile markets = bonus rewards
Consecutive Wins	1.0x - 1.3x	Streak bonus up to 5 rounds
Token Holding	1.0x - 1.2x	Long-term holders get bonus

⏰ Round Timing

Round Schedule:

🕐 Continuous Rounds:
├── New round every 5 minutes
├── 24/7 operation
├── No breaks or maintenance windows
└── Global timezone support

Time Zones:

Region	Round Start Times
UTC	:00, :05, :10, :15, :20...
EST	-5 hours from UTC
PST	-8 hours from UTC
CET	+1 hour from UTC
JST	+9 hours from UTC

Round States:

🔄 Round Lifecycle:
├── 📝 Upcoming (30 seconds before)
├── 🎯 Active (5 minutes - accepting predictions)  
├── 🔒 Locked (finalizing price)
├── ✅ Settled (rewards distributed)
└── 📊 Historical (archived)

🎯 Prediction Strategies

Beginner Strategy:

1. Start with minimum stakes (30,000-100,000 ILUM)
2. Follow AI recommendations with 70%+ confidence
3. Learn from each prediction outcome
4. Gradually increase stakes as you improve
5. Focus on understanding market patterns

Intermediate Strategy:

1. Analyze multiple signals before predicting
2. Use 10-50 ILUM per prediction
3. Track your prediction accuracy
4. Develop your own market insights
5. Combine AI analysis with news events

Advanced Strategy:

1. Use position sizing based on confidence
2. Diversify across multiple rounds
3. Understand market microstructure
4. Develop statistical models
5. Contribute to community discussions

📊 Prediction Statistics

Individual Stats:

Your Prediction History:
├── Total Predictions: 247
├── Successful: 168 (68% accuracy)
├── Failed: 79 (32%)
├── Total Staked: 2,450 ILUM
├── Total Earned: 3,120 ILUM
├── Net Profit: +670 ILUM📈
├── Best Streak: 8 consecutive wins
└── Current Streak: 3 wins

Platform Statistics:

Global Platform Stats:
├── Total Rounds: 50,000+
├── Total Predictions: 2.5M+
├── Average Accuracy: 52% (random would be 50%)
├── Top Predictor: 89% accuracy (min 100 predictions)
├── Largest Win: 5,000 ILLUMIND reward
└── Most Active: 10,000+ predictions

🏆 Leaderboards Example

Accuracy Leaderboard:

Rank	User	Accuracy	Predictions
🥇	CryptoAI_Master	89.2%	156
🥈	MarketWhisperer	87.5%	234
🥉	PredictionKing	85.8%	189

Volume Leaderboard:

Rank	User	Total Staked	Profit
🥇	WhalePredictor	50,000 ILUM	+15,200
🥈	AIFollower	35,000 ILUM	+8,900
🥉	MarketMaker	28,000 ILUM	+7,100

🔍 Understanding Market Conditions

Market States:

Trending Market 📈

Characteristics:
├── Clear directional movement
├── High volume
├── AI confidence usually high
└── Good for trend-following predictions

Best Strategy: Follow the trend direction

Sideways Market ➡️

Characteristics:
├── Price bouncing in range
├── Mixed signals
├── AI confidence medium/low
└── Difficult to predict

Best Strategy: Wait for clearer signals or use smaller stakes

Volatile Market ⚡

Characteristics:
├── Large price swings
├── High reward potential
├── High risk
└── AI confidence varies rapidly

Best Strategy: Use strict risk management

🚨 Risk Management

Important Guidelines:

Never Risk More Than You Can Afford to Lose

Safe Allocation:
├── Beginners: Max 5% of crypto portfolio
├── Intermediate: Max 10% of crypto portfolio
├── Advanced: Max 20% of crypto portfolio
└── Never use money needed for living expenses

Diversification Rules

Smart Betting:
├── Don't put all tokens in one prediction
├── Spread across multiple rounds
├── Vary your prediction sizes
└── Take breaks after big losses

Emotional Control

Avoid These Mistakes:
❌ Chasing losses with bigger bets
❌ Ignoring AI when overconfident
❌ FOMO into every round
❌ Revenge trading after losses
✅ Stick to your strategy
✅ Trust the process
✅ Learn from mistakes

🔧 Technical Implementation

Smart Contract Functions:

// Create new prediction round
function startNewRound() external returns (uint256 roundId)

// Make prediction
function predict(uint256 roundId, bool isUp, uint256 amount) external

// Resolve round and distribute rewards  
function settleRound(uint256 roundId) external

// Claim rewards
function claimReward(uint256 roundId) external

Price Oracle Integration:

// Get current price from Moralis
const currentPrice = await Moralis.Web3API.token.getTokenPrice({
  address: "0x...", // ETH address
  chain: "eth",
  to_block: "latest"
});

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